BEST PICTURE:
This has been an interesting awards season with so many different frontrunners. Anora was the early favorite after winning the Palme d’Or and becoming the first contender to receive a wide release. However, momentum began to shift toward The Brutalist and Emilia Perez after Anora was shut out at the Golden Globes.
Anora’s chances seemed finished until the final moments of the Critics Choice Awards, where it won Best Picture. This gave Anora a glimmer of hope, but the following night, it won Best Film at the PGA, and Sean Baker took home the DGA award. Suddenly, Anora surged ahead as the clear Best Picture frontrunner.
While controversies appeared to weaken The Brutalist and Emilia Perez, a new competitor emerged: Conclave. It had been a lock for Best Adapted Screenplay all season and was always in contention for Best Editing, but I never really considered it a serious contender for Best Picture—until recently.
After Conclave won Best Film at the BAFTAs, I didn’t think much of it. After all, it was the biggest British film there, and the BAFTAs are notoriously biased toward British films—which also explains Wallace & Gromit’s success that night. They’re British icons!
Then Conclave won Best Ensemble at SAG, taking everyone by surprise. Since SAG is the final major precursor before the Oscars, it officially turned Best Picture into a real race.
While I still think Anora is significantly ahead, I wouldn’t rule out Conclave—and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if it pulled off an upset.
WINNER: ANORA
BEST ACTOR:
I think Best Actor is one of the easiest categories to predict this year. While it has been framed as a race between Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet, I don’t think it was ever truly competitive—Brody has been the clear frontrunner all season.
Although Chalamet won at SAG, I don’t think that changes anything. A lone SAG winner has never gone on to win Best Actor at the Oscars. I wouldn’t completely rule Chalamet out, but if he were to win, it would be a major upset.
WINNER: ADRIEN BRODY-THE BRUTALIST
BEST ACTRESS:
Now, the most interesting race of the season: Demi Moore vs. Mikey Madison. While Moore has won a good share of the precursors, Madison has shown a lot of strength. She won the BAFTA after Anora was shut out and surprisingly lost Screenplay to A Real Pain. Plus, the fact that she stars in a likely Best Picture winner only strengthens her chances.
I’ve been predicting Madison at every awards show this season and have often been left disappointed, so I’ve made a last-minute pivot to Moore for the Oscar. Moore has performed well at most of the precursors, and winning SAG was a huge boost. She also built significant momentum before voting began, with her speeches generating a lot of attention.
This is a category I wouldn’t bet on though. It’s probably a 50/50 race.
WINNER: DEMI MOORE-THE SUBSTANCE
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
The supporting categories will be brief—both are locked, and there’s not much to discuss. Culkin has dominated all season, and rightfully so. They might as well engrave his name on the Oscar now—there’s not a chance that he doesn’t win.
WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN-A Real Pain
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Another lock. Despite the controversies and Emilia Perez’s campaign falling flat, Zoe Saldana has remained strong, sweeping every precursor. This is her Oscar, and I would be astonished if she didn’t win.
WINNER: ZOE SALDANA-EMILIA PEREZ
BEST DIRECTOR:
This was a competitive race at one point, but I think it’s over now. Brady Corbet was the early frontrunner after winning the Golden Globe and with The Brutalist looking strong. He also won the BAFTA, which is a significant achievement, so you can’t completely rule him out—but I think Sean Baker takes this one pretty easily.
After Anora’s golden weekend, which included Baker winning the DGA, he solidified himself as the clear frontrunner. With Anora’s momentum and The Brutalist losing steam, I don’t think this race is even close anymore. If Corbet somehow pulls off a win, I’d be shocked—and it would make me worry about Anora’s chances for the rest of the night. I see this as Anora’s strongest category, and it almost feels like a necessary win as part of its Best Picture package.
WINNER: SEAN BAKER-ANORA
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Like in all of Anora’s other categories, it didn’t sweep here, yet I still think it’s the clear frontrunner. Its only real competitor is A Real Pain.
The Substance won the Critics Choice Award, but it was never a serious contender—John M. Chu won Best Director for Wicked that same night, after all. A Real Pain emerged as a late challenger after its big win at the BAFTAs, but I don’t think it poses much of a threat to Anora. Anora just feels too strong, and without a Best Picture or Best Director nomination for A Real Pain, I don’t see it standing much of a chance here.
That said, it would be funny if A Real Pain won both of its nominations while A Complete Unknown went home empty-handed despite having eight.
WINNER: ANORA
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
This is one of the biggest locks of the night, right up there with Supporting Actor. Conclave has been dominant in this category from the start and faces no real competition.
In a world without the Emilia Perez controversy, would it have had a chance? Probably not—but who knows.
WINNER: CONCLAVE
BEST EDITING:
This has been a tough category to predict all season, especially since the ACE Eddie Awards take place after the Oscars, leaving us without a clear frontrunner.
Anora has the Best Picture strength, but I’ve never seen it as a serious contender for Editing. I’ve always leaned toward Conclave, and with its recent surge in momentum, I’m confident it will take home the Oscar for Best Editing.
WINNER: CONCLAVE
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE:
This is a fascinating category this year, with both frontrunners earning Best Picture nominations and recognition in other categories.
Emilia Perez seemed like an early lock after winning the Golden Globe and securing 13 nominations. It also went on to win the BAFTA, and with Saldana continuing to sweep, I’m not sure how much the controversy has actually hurt its chances in this category.
This feels like a true 50/50 race between Emilia Perez and I’m Still Here, but I’m leaning toward Emilia Perez, especially if it takes home Supporting Actress. That said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if I’m Still Here pulls off the win.
WINNER: EMILIA PEREZ
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
This has been a tight race between The Wild Robot and Flow.
Flow looked strong early after winning the Golden Globe, but The Wild Robot pulled ahead after victories at the Critics Choice Awards and PGA. It all came down to the BAFTAs—had either film won, I probably would have predicted it for the Oscar. But, of course, the BAFTAs went with Wallace and Gromit.
Flow still has an outside chance, but I think the Oscar will go to The Wild Robot.
WINNER: THE WILD ROBOT
BEST COSTUME DESIGN & PRODUCTION DESIGN:
I have decided to merge these two categories into one since I don’t have much to say about either, and they both have the same winner. Wicked will comfortably take home the award in both categories. It won the BAFTA in both and also performed well at the Costume Designers Guild Awards. I’m fairly certain these categories are locked.
WINNER: WICKED
BEST SOUND AND VFX:
I also have the same winner in both of these categories. VFX is probably the biggest lock of the night, but sound is slightly more competitive. Dune 2 won the MPSE award and the BAFTA, while its main alternative, A Complete Unknown, only won CAS. I do think Dune 2 will take sound, but I wouldn’t rule out A Complete Unknown. As for VFX, it’s completely locked—the Oscar already belongs to Dune 2.
WINNER: DUNE PART TWO
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
I think this is a fairly comfortable win for The Brutalist, especially after its BAFTA victory. Maria is a legitimate alternative and should be taken seriously after winning ASC, but I don’t think the race is close—The Brutalist will definitely take this award.
WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
BEST SCORE:
After Challengers swept most of the precursors in this category but failed to secure an Oscar nomination, the BAFTAs became our best indicator of who might win. We already knew Conclave was their favorite film, so if it had won Best Score, the race would have remained uncertain and even more complicated. However, the fact that they awarded The Brutalist for Best Score leaves no doubt in my mind that it will go on to win the Oscar as well.
WINNER: THE BRUTALIST
BEST SONG:
This is a rather uninteresting category with little competition. Emilia Perez has two nominations, and El Mal has won the most precursors, making it a fairly safe bet to win the Oscar.
WINNER: EL MAL-EMILIA PEREZ
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:
There is only one film that can win this award—there isn’t even a viable alternative. The Substance has already secured the Oscar.
WINNER: THE SUBSTANCE
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
No Other Land has been winning consistently all season. Its BAFTA loss was surprising, but since the film it lost to isn’t nominated in this category, I don’t think it’s too damaging. It’s worth noting that Porcelain War won DGA, but I still believe No Other Land will take the win here.
WINNER: NO OTHER LAND
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
The short film categories are always tough to predict, but I’ll do my best. I don’t have much to back up my prediction, but I’ve heard good things about Incident, and it’s the highest-rated film in the category. I’m not very confident, but I think Incident takes the win here.
WINNER: INCIDENT
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
I have a bit more to go on in this category. Wander to Wonder won the BAFTA for Animated Short and also took home the Annie Award, so I believe it will go on to win the Oscar as well.
WINNER: WANDER TO WONDER
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT:
I have no clear idea what will win this category. I know The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent won the Short Film Palme d’Or, so that’s my prediction. However, that was a while ago, and a lot could have changed since then. I’m not particularly knowledgeable about the short film categories, so I could easily go 0/3 here.
WINNER: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Written by Jacob Wolfe
Wolfe At The Movies 